Give a me a quick run down lainon.
Nibiru is a supposed near-future collision between Earth and some other body (usually described as a planet). There are relationships between this theory and Sumarian tablets describing two suns, one with a comet tail. Additionally I have heard some recent videos have been taken by people supposedly showing this phenomenon but I haven't been able to track them down.
Sounds like a grand time.
I come at this from the perspective of a person who is 99% convinced its absurd, so take what I say as you will.
As I understand it, Nibiru, though it sometimes has other names, is another supposed planet in the solar system, relatively large, who orbits in a rather elliptical pattern, that periodically passes close to the earth, or maybe collides. Supposedly, in the near-ish future, it will make a near pass with the earth, and likely bring an end to civilization as we know it.
In principal, this jives with orbital mechanics. if we believe that its on a very large, very slow orbit, its possible that it would have passed once, long ago, been observed, and be able to pass by again. There are comets with similar orbits, generally not planet sized, but perhaps we can entertain the idea that its possible some satellite of Jupiter, perhaps, was thrown out into a very large orbit at some time in the distant past.
Nibiru, from what I can tell, is supposed to have an orbit somewhere between several thousand years, and several hundred thousand. If we are to believe that it was observed by perhaps the Maya, or the Sumerians, as some sources seem to claim, it has to be on the range of a few thousand at most. Though many ancient cultures had reasonably developed astronomy in some respects, it seems a strain to suggest that anyone prior to the last few centuries could make reliable predictions of an objects orbit based on only one sighting. Halley's comet was likely long known because it came back reliably, every 76 years, if instead it came back every five hundred years, it would have taken at least 1500 years to figure out it was the same object, and to make predictions about when its going to show up again.
so: its unlikely that anyone predicted Nibiru to come long ago, but that doesn't mean its not coming now. If it has an orbit on the longer side, say, 500 000 years, its not unreasonable that it never would have been observed by humans until quite recently. We could characterize it as a very large long period comet, flying past on its single, or simply very rare visit to the inner solar system. The fact that its large would make it easier to see long before the close pass with the earth, which is essential if we can predict that its going to make such a pass to begin with, and not more than say, a few days or weeks before it happens.
While this is true, an easily observed Nibiru poses a number of difficult problems. NASA does not hold a monopoly on good telescopes, and if one observatory spotted a large object that close to earth, its inconceivable that others would not have done so as well. The conspiracy theorist in me says that they could have arranged a large coverup, whereby many astronomers are aware of Nibiru, they just aren't talking, and no one else knows. The realist in me makes several observations:
If its coming closer, its probably getting more visible; larger and brighter. Perhaps if it was spotted in the 90's or 80's, it could have required good telescopes to pick out. If that's true today it should be rather easier to find, not improbably in the grasp of many amateurs, not to mention universities and research institutions.
second, there are a whole lot of telescopes, including many good ones, including many doing all sky surveys. Perhaps, again, it could have been discovered some time ago, and kept quiet, thanks to the fact that only a few people knew of it then this would be easy. Nowadays the coverup would likely involve many governments, many universities, many departments within governments, and many many scientists and students. It is highly improbable that one could manage to keep such a large community from talking, and all it would take is one disgruntled researcher releasing a few bytes of data, to make the entire conspiracy collapse. At that point all it would take would be a few people pointing their telescopes the right direction and confirming they see the same object.
On top of this, if its getting close, it should be getting visible in the sky, unless its coming from the side of the sun. I don't know about you, but I haven't seen any planet looking things in the sky where they shouldn't be. Additionally, at the recent total solar eclipse, we got to see the area close to the sun, dark enough that you could see planets sitting pretty close to it. I don't recall seeing anything weird over on that side of the sky, and none of the pictures Ive seen suggest anything that shouldn't be there, either.
If I really wanted, I could try to contrive some scenario where maybe, maybe, some object of that size would be able to go unnoticed for this long. But the fact that something is not wholly impossible doesn't override the fact that its incredibly improbable. And to be frank, there are many things that are far more likely to destroy all of human civilization in the next few decades. Global Climate Change is a big one, the prospect of nuclear war still looms to some degree, you could worry about disease epidemics, perhaps advanced by instability caused by climate change. If you really want some doom from outer space scenario to worry about, personally I'd suggest long period comets, which can be hard to predict, or spot, and conceivably could strike the earth in a very damaging way with little to no notice.
Thanks for the really in-depth reply!
Makes a lot of sense to me, I wonder if this phenomenon is perhaps more psychological or straight spiritual, since it seems the literal interpretation is fairly unfeasible.
>>126>If you really want some doom from outer space scenario to worry about
Solar flares powerful enough to burn all electric stations out will throw humanity in a perpetual stone age, as all surface ore and coal to reboot Industrial Age is long depleted.